Microsoft to Buy RIM???

OK, gang, let's not panic. Microsoft may be thinking about buying RIM if the stock slide continues. This is potentially a market changing move. (And, it may trigger some kind of anti-competitive issues, but we will let the lawyers decide that). In 2Q 2008, RIM surpassed WinMo in market share, and they doubled their market share over the previous year. With the Bold and Storm making waves, I think that the RIM market share is set to add another 50% growth in the coming year. So, what does this potential acquisition mean for Microsoft? First, it would give them a growth juggernaut, something that WinMo hasn't been in the past 12-24 months. Interestingly, the software strategies of the companies have been on a collision course. MS has been honing the mobile capabilities of Exchange to compete with Blackberry. Owning the Blackberry technology would truly put MS in the mobile e-mail drivers seat. RIM's recent push into mobile multimedia with their 88XX and beyond series, have really been making a RIM device a consumer hardware choice, too, not just an enterprise play. Microsoft, too, is pushing ahead as much as possible into the consumer space, with Zune, and other efforts. These guys are rushing for the same space. So, the strategy makes sense for MS (perhaps significantly less so for RIM, but cash is king these days). The piece of this that doesn't fit, to me, is the hardware component. RIM designed handsets and the Blackberry OS are intertwined. Microsoft isn't a handset manufacturer. In fact, becoming a handset manufacturer puts them in direct competition with their Windows Mobile licensees. The natural turn of events would be to turn the Blackberry OS into a licensable hunk of software. This seems like an unwieldy and treacherous undertaking that is likely to result in an OS that needs to make compromises in order to be successful. If the handset design falls to outsiders, I can almost guarantee that the cool, immediate, graceful integration that makes a Blackberry a Blackberry will be severely diminished. On the positive side for RIM, suddenly they would have even deeper access to Exchange which can only make their enterprise offering better. Further, I think that some of the issues that RIM has had with Blackberry service failing might be alleviated by a company that has the depth of experience in running large scale operations that Microsoft has. That could be a service boon for RIM lovers. What is your take? I, for one, hope that this never happens. RIM is an innovative company that might get lost inside of MS.

Wait, What's That? Another App Store?!?

Hello Sportsfans! While the world celebrates the ascension of the Red Sox to the next round of the MLB Playoffs to face the vaunted Tampa Bay Rays, there is more mobile news worth talking about. RIM is launching an App Store for BlackBerry! That is hot on the heels of the startling news that T-Mo/Google are launching an App Store for Android! And that follows the launch of the App Store for iPhone!

So, is this anything REALLY new? I don't think so.As far as I remember, Handango has had an App Store for years. I remember how cool it was in 2004/5 when I could download a client onto my Palm Treo 600 and buy an app over the air! That was simply incredible! So futuristic, so advanced, so amazing!

What I am wondering is why it wasn't exciting to everyone then. Do any of the app stores break any new ground that Handango or even Zingy! (oops, I mean Vindigo) didn't back in the day? I'm not so sure? And, sports fans, are these app stores any better than the carrier deck? To tell you the truth, they really aren't. The interfaces are definitely better. The buying process is much smoother, but the concepts are exactly the same. Someone aggregates all the appropriate applications for your device and makes them available for sale.

What is different today is who owns the App Store. Years ago, the carrier was the gatekeeper of what could or could not be sold (and for feature phones, they still are). Then, for smartphones, Handango was the master. And today, the master is the phone manufacturer, Apple, RIM and for all intents and purposes, Google. Is this a dramatic shift? Well maybe.

In the dark days of carrier control, carriers were king makers, allowing only those applications that they blessed to be sold. There were strict guidelines regarding performance, audience size and potential revenue for that title to the carrier. Handango stretched that a bit, giving fairly good terms to the developers. But they still controlled the merchandising and had a "pay to play" mentality. Today's App Stores are run by more benevolent dictators, embracing some flavor of openness. And they view the app stores as opportunities to create better experiences on their devices. I suspect that few of the App Store owners will make significant money on their stores, regardless of how many apps they sell. And, mostly, that is because they are in the business of selling phones, not third party software.

In the future, the App Store model will start to die, just as the carrier deck has started to fade. More developers will become publishers, and more software will be made that is attractive, essential and compelling, and these developers won't have to share with the App Store.They will drive the sales themselves.

The App Store is a vibrant new(?) development that is a flash in the pan. And developers, get ready. Soon enough you are going to have to learn how to market your wares yourself. Hey, I think I just found a growth industry. Imagine that on a day Ben Bernanke says the we are in a world of hurt.