iPhone Users Use 30x More Data!

While this is not hard to believe, T-Mobile says that iPhone users use 30X more data than standard mobile users. This simply supports my thoughts that the iPhone, while maybe not revolutionary, is raising the bar for the entire mobile industry.

Several months ago, I was at a meeting with a carrier who doesn't offer the iPhone. Their thoughts about the iPhone were simple. They didn't care that they weren't offering it because they were seeing increased consumer demand for data services and increased interest from high-quality developers to offer iPhone-like interfaces. The iPhone was having a positive effect on their data businesses, because it raised the bar, but also drove awareness of mobile data.

This awareness and profile raising can only mean good things for mobile data, because when the end customer expects more, they get more. Boring WAP will no longer be good enough. Apps that provide minimal functionality will no longer be good enough. Rich, deep data experiences that offer multi-media and a strong focus on the UI will become the norm rather than the exception. Bravo!

Nokia and Motorola Results

What a week. Nokia announces that it has 40% GLOBAL MARKET SHARE. That is just remarkable. 4 out of every 10 phones sold belong to Nokia. That is an astounding piece of news. This kind of global market leverage makes Nokia's push into content and services through Ovi, and their acquisition of Navteq seem like incredibly smart moves. This puts Nokia into a real power position and potentially reduces the need for any carrier influence in the content and service value chain.

Motorola, on the other hand, announced diappointing results. Most interesting is the drop in marketshare. In 2006, Moto made 1 out of every 4 phones, now it is one out of every 8. (I think we know where the difference went...) Moto is on the verge of becoming a footnote in mobile. Nokia, Apple, Samsung are all on the rise, and Moto is searching desperately for a RAZR hit. Moto is approaching the game like Jack Cust, swinging hard and looking for a big home run. Nokia is more like Ichiro, hitting for average and stretching singles into doubles. Guess who is an All-Star?

You Tube Goes Mobile

You Tube goes MOBILE. This is interesting not because it is You Tube. There are plenty of ways to get You Tube on your phone. What is interesting is that there is a Beta app that is FREE. Thi smeans that carriers are beginning to honor their promises to be open. In years past, there would have been no access to video through a Java app unless a carrier were involved. It is fitting that Google has done this first, and had the opportunity to create this kind of opportunity. It will be interesting to see how quickly they port the beat app and see what kind of application reach they try to get. The WAP site works well. There are still significant issues of video discovery, but that is endemic to the mobile world (and pretty endemic to You Tube's web experience, too).

This is good stuff. I would imagine that we will see Google-delivered pre and post roll ads as well as the "layover" type that have started to pop up on YT recently. Although huge success isn't neccessary in the short term for this to be called a positive experience, I do believe that this is a very interesting development and potentially one of those inflection points that all the biz guys talk about ;-)

Sprint to Cut 4000 Jobs

Sprint has announced that it will cut 4000 jobs. Further it will pull back on some of its retail efforts, and cull some of its affiliates. It lost 638,000 subscribers. Holy guacamole.

So, clearly things aren't headed in the right direction for Sprint. The problem isn't the product. Sure the network isn't as good as Verizon's, but I am a Sprint subscriber and I rarely have problems with my coverage. The value proposition is essentially the same as the big two carriers, but Sprint is hemmoraging while others continue to enjoy growth.

The issue revolves around messaging. Verizon has been using the "Can you hear me now" guy for years. ATT masterfully negotiated the Cingular transition (why they spent $1b to do it is beyond me, Cingular was a good name and a good brand). But ATT has been consistent in messaging (more bars in more places). What has Sprint's messaging been? Sprint Speed? Power Up? We used to be Nextel?

The issue for Sprint is not the product, but rather the message. Sprint has lacked the vision (resources?) and leadership to create a brand message and see it through. That hurts customer acquisition. The other issues that Sprint has around cost of service calls from its subscribers, and their inability to fix basic billing issues has been problematic and that impinges on the subscriber base. So what happens when you can't acquire new customers and you have problems servicing the ones that you do? Well, you lose a subscribers at an alarming rate.

Sprint needs to hire new marketing folks. Hire a new ad agency. And get some differentiated phones. ATT has the iPhone. Verizon the Voyager. T-Mo makes a big deal out of multi-colored Pearls. Sprint...ahhh....well...they have the Upstage?

Sprint needs to focus on customers, phones, customers, and customers.

I think Sprint is too big to buy, and too big to fail. Do they just become the network that powers MVNOs? Do they become subserviant to their cable JV partners? Many folks predict that Google will buy Sprint. I can't figure out whay that deal makes any sense. What do you think happens?

Here is my prediction: By 2011, Sprint is still the #3 carrier, but they are constantly battling with T-Mo for that spot. And nobody notices.

iPod Touch, the Next Generation

So, Apple unleashed a slew of hardware yesterday. The Macbook Air looks very interesting, and with its emphasis on wireless communications, it really has piqued my interest. (I hate wires of all sorts. Despise them actually...wish every cord and wire and cable would evaporate instantly.) The Air doesn't sport cables other than a power cord. Bravo! It sports Bluetooth, 802.11n, and some nifty software. What it doesn't support is true mobile connectivity...so, it is truly a portable, not a mobile computing device. A bit of a letdown. Integrated mobile access through ATT would have been a great addition. Perhaps the next rev.
However, I think that the most overlooked event of this edition of the Macworld Expo was the upgrade to the iPod Touch. With the advent of location awareness through Skyhook Wireless and their excellent wiFi Access Point location database, and the inclusion of a mail client on the device, the Touch just changed who and what it is.
Previously, sporting WiFi and the excellent mobile Safari browser, the Touch was a great info-tainment device. But with location awareness and the new mail client, the Touch has jumped the chasm into a mobile computing device. For all of the Apple fans and folks who post to sites like MacNN who were clamoring for a tablet computer, Apple just surpassed your expectations by delivering a micro-tablet. It sports a touch screen interface, internet access, media players, e-mail, and location-sensitive mapping. That is HUGE. It allows access to Word, Excel and PDFs, and carries calendar and addressbook info.

It doesn't come with an integrated phone. So it doesn't come with a carrier contract. What a relief.

So, here you go...everything that the iPhone has with none of the drawbacks (and twice the storage). The Touch is now hot. The iPhone is still cool, but the Touch is hot.

More iPhone/Google Excitement

Over the holidays, Google logged in more search traffic from iPhone users than from Symbian users, and now Eric Schmidt, Head Googler and Apple Board Member, seems to have to recuse himself from Apple meetings when mobile discussions are happening, and Google has just updated the iGoogle for the iPhone and Google's Vic Gondotra keeps saying that "This will work great on Android!" all of which lead me to believe that Google is using the iPhone as a finishing school. (The previous sentence was not only one of the longest I have ever written, but also has the distinction of having more hyperlinks in it than any other sentence I have written. Yay me!)

Google is clearly viewing the iPhone as a learning experience. The iPhone could serve as the inspiration for many of Android's key features. It is very smart of Google to use the iPhone as a vehicle by which they can observe sophisticated mobile devices in action before the plethora of Android devices come to the fore. It is clear, then, that Google is a difficult company with which to partner because they are so good at so many things that it is impossible for them to engage with a partner and then not step on the partner's toes. (Other tech companies, like Microsoft, and certainly Apple, are guilty of this too.) (Just ask the Konfabulator guys, or any of the freeware folks that made "Spaces" type software for the Mac before 10.5...Cupertino assimilated their ideas and made them irrelevant.)

So, can Android make the iPhone less relevant? The answer is "maybe". If Google can assimilate enough UI experience from the iPhone, and create better media search tools (and provide an even better browsing experience (Flash support anyone?) than mobile Safari) then I think that Google has the opportunity to return Apple to its industry changing, but fundamentally niche market position in mobile. Since Google does not have to worry about hardware, but rather put all of its emphasis on the core functionality of the software and let other folks (i.e. Android developers) build all of the treacherous middleware and connector pieces, the I believe that Android could have an even bigger actual impact on mobile than Apple has. Apple will continue to own the aspirational user and maintain aesthetic and idea leadership, but 5 years hence, I believe that there will be orders of magnitudes more Android phones than Apple phones.

To be honest with you, that makes me a little sad to envision. I am a big Apple fan, and don't mind paying homage to Cupertino with an all Mac setup, but the Google beast will eventually eat up the mobile world much in the same way that it has devoured the internet one. Is it a bad future? No, but I suspect that we will all feel about Google the way that we used to feel about Microsoft...

Skype to Demonstrate Mobile Skype Experience at CES

Skype to Demonstrate Mobile Skype Experience at CES: So, really, what is the big to-do here? I'm down with Skype. The service is cool. The technology is cool too. But, truly, truly, truly when is the last time you thought about the cost of making a long distance phone call? Domestic calls are virtually free (or, really, the cost is disguised) and international calls are plummeting in cost. (Although roaming calls and international long distance are still a huge profit center for the mobile industry.)Mobile Skype doesn't relieve you of any burdens. While you are traveling, you must either be paying roaming data rates, or be using a data plan. If you are using just Wifi, then it really isn't mobile, but rather portable...Mobile Skype may be cheaper than using voice minutes, but you give up the reliability of carrier voice connections. If you are traveling abroad, you will likely be using Wifi and a PC will be just as good an option.No real story here, although the VOIP guys want you to think there is. (As a disclaimer, I love VOIP. My home phone is VOIP, my office phone is VOIP, but they are relacements for traditional services, whereas mobile Skype will be an add-on service on top of your usual monthly voice/data plan fee).If we can get true mobile service without a carrier agreement, then that would be a story.

Yahoo Mobile Go 3.0: The New OS?

Yahoo Go 3.0 is rapidly becoming its own operating system. With the recent announcement of third party widgets, Yahoo has truly entered a new position in the mobile eco-system. Yahoo Go was already a terrific collection of software and had pretty deep functionality (I especially liked the Flickr access), but with the addition of relatively easy to create widgets that can live inside the Yahoo application, Yahoo has made itself a formidible player in the mobile space. By creating an environment that acts as a platform, Yahoo has made itself a reasonable friend of the development community.

The interesting aspects of Go 3.0:

1. Off Deck: No carrier interference...ad supported?
2. Good Reach: Yahoo Go supports roughly 300 handsets at the moment. This saves developers thousands and thousands of hours of porting and development time. Further, Yahoo Go is already cross platform, so Java developers, or BREW developers, or 'Berry developers get access to a new slew of demographically diverse folks...without any effort.
3. Yahoo is heavily invested in making Yahoo Go a success, so Yahoo bears the brunt of finding the interested customers.
4. Any experience built to work inside Yahoo Go will work as a stand alone experience...very good stuff.

The bad things about Yahoo Go:

1. Off Deck: No Carrier Push
2. Your experience will live inside a Yahoo branded thing
3. I would imagine that any advertising revenue will be sourced and controlled by Yahoo, limiting your potential financial gain
4. No clear storefront/m-commerce opportunities

I think this is a great move by Yahoo! Good luck!

8 Predictions for 2008

As I am sure that many of you are simply astounded at the depth of my insight regarding 7 for '07, here are my 8 predictions for '08:

1. The WAP vs APP debate will end: There has been a long standing debate in the developer communities. Many preach ubiquity and reach, and therefore WAP. Others strike the battle cry of User Experience, and therefore promote applications. In 2008, those arguments will begin to fade as the developer and carrier communities realize that the right answer isn't WAP or App, but rather WAP and App. The smart developer will publish to both as a method of providing the best combination of reach and experience for the entire mobile community, capturing both the long and short tail.
2. The iPhone Will Continue To Push the Mobile Industry: Regardless of what you think of Apple, the iPhone will continue to drive the awareness and desirability of mobile data access. The iPhone is like the gateway drug for the industry. Consumers get a taste of what is possible from mobile, and developers and carriers get a taste of the enormous potential of consumer driven development. The iPhone, through its success, will continue to push the entire industry forward. Look for lots of bleary eyed developers rushing for the SDK in February.
3. WiMax/LTE...Whatever: True high speed mobile data will not happen in any significant way this year. ATT is still on EDGE, Sprint and Clearwire aren't holding hands anymore, and frankly, consumers still don't care. When true high speed is widely available, highly reliable and better understood by the average consumer, then the clamor for the next generation of mobile technology will begin. Until then, EDGE and EV-DO can do the trick. Look for some big fun in 2009.
4. T-Mo, ATT and Verizon Will Continue to Grow: Sprint will continue to get pounded by the media, won't get Nextel figured out, and will still pay too much money for sponsorships that don't have a clear ROI. Also, Sprint is the only carrier on which one cannot make a call on the Boston subway system. What's the deal with that? (I am a Sprint subscriber, and I have no troubles with their service (other than the subway thing). But I don't feel optimistic about their long term health, but I can't for the life of me figure out who could acquire/partner with them to make things better.)
5. I Will Lose My Phone This Year: There is a 100% chance that I will lose my phone this year. I will leave it on a plane, a cab, a client's office, the subway, I don't know, but, I WILL LOSE MY PHONE THIS YEAR! Paying $7.00/mo for a warranty that covers loss is an option, but with the deductible of $50 or $100 + $7.00/mo ($84 annually) that gets really close to full retail. It looks like some lucky eBay seller will get my business again this year.
6. At Least 1 Major Carrier Will Offer a Post-Paid Plan Without a Cancellation Fee and at Least 1 Carrier Will Offer a Real Unlimited Voice/Data Plan: My guess is that T-Mo will do it, but that is pure speculation. The no-ETF plan won't be a terrific value, but there will be one carrier that tries it and realizes that the spectre of a $200 ETF makes many consumers anxious so that they run seeking the benevolence of a new master once their contract is up. Further, a carrier will create a plan, around $140/mo, that allows for unlimited voice/text/data/video&pic messaging and includes either a PC Card or tether option. Count on it.
7. Mobile TV Will Finally Start Making Some Real Money: There has been a huge years-long hype about mobile TV. Thus far, only the carriers (and maybe MLB and the NFL) have made any real money from it. Even mobile TV giant MobiTV doesn't seem to be making huge profits from their 3mm+ subscribers, but in 2008, someone, maybe MediaFLO or MobiTV or perhaps Comcast/Sprint (through Pivot) or maybe a network (NBC2go?) will figure out a way to monetize their mobile audiences in a meaningful way. This will be a very exciting inflection point in the industry.
8. Location, Location, Location: Location-based services will truly begin to flourish, even beyond the traditional navigation paradigm. As carriers become less protective of their APIs, and cell-tower triangulation becomes more and more mainstream, location-based solutions will really being to rise to the point of not only being interesting, but truly useful.

So, those are my silly rantings. What do you think?